Using web search queries to monitor influenza-like illness: an exploratory retrospective analysis, Netherlands, 2017/18 influenza season

May 29, 2020

In this retrospective analysis, researchers simulated the weekly use of a prediction model for estimating the then-current Influenza-like illness(ILI)  incidence across the 2017/18 influenza season solely based on Google search query data. The models provided accurate predictions with a mean and maximum absolute error of 1.40 and 6.36 per 10,000 population. The onset, peak and end of the epidemic were predicted with an error of 1, 3 and 2 weeks, respectively.This study demonstrates the feasibility of accurate, real-time ILI incidence predictions in the Netherlands using Google search query data. Eurosurveillance


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